Abstract:
The possibility of indigenous life on Mars, either past or present, is a persistent theme that permeates literature, popular culture, and, of course, the exploration of Mars itself. Whether seeking organics, biomarkers, or organisms, scientific integrity demands that positive in situ detections are not confused by contaminants that are inadvertently brought from Earth to Mars. It is also imperative that viable terrestrial microbes do not find their way into habitable Marian environments where they could proliferate. The concerns about broad, large-scale forward contamination of Mars and the policies that result are not well grounded in the atmospheric transport physics that are responsible for spreading potential contaminants beyond a local landing site. Using high resolution (mesoscale) simulations of the atmospheric circulations in and around Gale Crater as an example, the probability of contaminating other areas through atmospheric transport is shown to decrease rapidly with distance and the probability of detecting any contamination dwindles to excruciatingly small values operationally equivalent to zero probability beyond the crater. Neither prior or current missions have ruined Mars as an astrobiology laboratory nor are future robotic missions likely to do so. Even human missions, which will necessarily carry a significant contaminant bioburden, are unlikely to produce meaningful contamination much beyond the local exploration zone.
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